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Tondela vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
1/4/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 17Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tondela36%
×Draw27%
União de Leiria37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.23
União de Leiria
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.33
União de Leiria
1.37

allows per match

Tondela
1.16
União de Leiria
1.14

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
63%
Tondela or União de Leiria
73%
Draw or União de Leiria
64%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
15%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
71%
Tondela 2+ goals
35%
Tondela 3+ goals
13%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
72%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
36%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
49%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tondela scores more
36%
level
27%
União de Leiria scores more
37%

União de Leiria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Tondela 1–4 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Tondela 4-1 in Segunda Liga on January 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.