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União de Leiria vs Fontinhas — Liga 3 2021

União de Leiria
União de Leiria
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fontinhas
Fontinhas
2/24/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 20Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União de Leiria63%
×Draw21%
Fontinhas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Leiria
2.00
Fontinhas
0.90

União de Leiria creates 122% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

União de Leiria
2.07
Fontinhas
1.00

allows per match

União de Leiria
0.80
Fontinhas
1.93

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par
Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Fontinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw
84%
União de Leiria or Fontinhas
79%
Draw or Fontinhas
37%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+
38%
Fontinhas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals
86%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
59%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
32%
Fontinhas 1+ goals
59%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
23%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)
79%
Fontinhas (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 2.07 + Fontinhas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fontinhas attack 1.00 + União de Leiria defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

União de Leiria scores more
63%
level
21%
Fontinhas scores more
16%

União de Leiria at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: União de Leiria 1–2 Fontinhas

Fontinhas beat União de Leiria 2-1 in Liga 3 on February 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria.