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Fontinhas vs União de Leiria — Liga 3 2021

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
11/12/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 9Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fontinhas29%
×Draw27%
União de Leiria44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
1.05
União de Leiria
1.38

União de Leiria creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.14
União de Leiria
1.55

allows per match

Fontinhas
1.21
União de Leiria
0.97

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
56%
Fontinhas or União de Leiria
73%
Draw or União de Leiria
71%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
11%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
65%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
28%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
9%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
75%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
40%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
39%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.14 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Fontinhas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fontinhas scores more
29%
level
27%
União de Leiria scores more
44%

União de Leiria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Fontinhas 1–1 União de Leiria

Fontinhas and União de Leiria drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio João Paulo II in Ilha Terceira, Açores.