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União de Leiria vs Cova De Piedade — Liga 3 2021

União de Leiria
União de Leiria
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
1/7/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

União de Leiria57%
×Draw23%
Cova De Piedade19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Leiria
1.75
Cova De Piedade
0.90

União de Leiria creates 94% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

União de Leiria
2.07
Cova De Piedade
1.00

allows per match

União de Leiria
0.80
Cova De Piedade
1.43

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw
81%
União de Leiria or Cova De Piedade
77%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
43%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+
32%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals
83%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
52%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
25%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
59%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
23%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)
75%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 2.07 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + União de Leiria defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

União de Leiria scores more
57%
level
23%
Cova De Piedade scores more
19%

União de Leiria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União de Leiria vs Cova De Piedade

União de Leiria beat Cova De Piedade 4-0 in Liga 3 on January 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Marinha Grande in Marinha Grande.