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Cova De Piedade vs União de Leiria — Liga 3 2021

Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
8/29/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 3Estádio das Seixas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cova De Piedade28%
×Draw26%
União de Leiria46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cova De Piedade
1.09
União de Leiria
1.49

União de Leiria creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Cova De Piedade
1.21
União de Leiria
1.55

allows per match

Cova De Piedade
1.43
União de Leiria
0.97

finishing

Cova De Piedade+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cova De Piedade ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cova De Piedade or draw
54%
Cova De Piedade or União de Leiria
74%
Draw or União de Leiria
72%

Winning margin

Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
11%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
66%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
30%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
10%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
77%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
44%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
37%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cova De Piedade at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cova De Piedade attack 1.21 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cova De Piedade scores more
28%
level
26%
União de Leiria scores more
46%

União de Leiria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Cova De Piedade 1–3 União de Leiria

União de Leiria beat Cova De Piedade 3-1 in Liga 3 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio das Seixas in Malveira, Mafra.