União de Leiria 2–2 Alverca: Result & Stats

União de Leiria

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Alverca

10/18/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

União de Leiria40%

×Draw26%

Alverca35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União de LeiriaExpected goals in this matchAlverca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

União de Leiria

1.42

Alverca

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.44

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

União de Leiria

1.44

Alverca

1.40

allows per match

União de Leiria

1.22

Alverca

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Alverca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw

65%

União de Leiria or Alverca

74%

Draw or Alverca

60%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+

19%

Alverca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals

76%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

41%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

17%

Alverca 1+ goals

73%

Alverca 2+ goals

38%

Alverca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

53%

Alverca (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.44 + Alverca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alverca attack 1.40 + União de Leiria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

União de Leiria scores more

40%

level

26%

Alverca scores more

35%

União de Leiria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff