Alverca 1–2 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Alverca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

União de Leiria

4/22/2023

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 4Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alverca38%

×Draw28%

União de Leiria34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlvercaExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.13

Alverca

1.23

União de Leiria

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

1.49

creates per match

1.55

0.71

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Alverca

1.49

União de Leiria

1.55

allows per match

Alverca

0.71

União de Leiria

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alverca+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alverca ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alverca or draw

66%

Alverca or União de Leiria

72%

Draw or União de Leiria

62%

Winning margin

Alverca wins by 2+

17%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alverca 1+ goals

71%

Alverca 2+ goals

35%

Alverca 3+ goals

13%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

68%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

31%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alverca (draw refunded)

53%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alverca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alverca attack 1.49 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Alverca defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alverca scores more

38%

level

28%

União de Leiria scores more

34%

Alverca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff