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União de Leiria vs Alcains — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

União de Leiria
União de Leiria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alcains
Alcains
2/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 15Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

União de Leiria70%
×Draw21%
Alcains9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

União de Leiria
1.80
Alcains
0.45

União de Leiria creates 300% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

União de Leiria
1.40
Alcains
0.50

allows per match

União de Leiria
0.40
Alcains
2.20

finishing

União de Leiria+0.00on par
Alcains+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União de Leiria ↓

Alcains →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

União de Leiria or draw
91%
União de Leiria or Alcains
79%
Draw or Alcains
30%

Winning margin

União de Leiria wins by 2+
43%
Alcains wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

União de Leiria 1+ goals
83%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
54%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
27%
Alcains 1+ goals
36%
Alcains 2+ goals
8%
Alcains 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

União de Leiria (draw refunded)
89%
Alcains (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União de Leiria at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Alcains away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União de Leiria attack 1.40 + Alcains defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Alcains attack 0.50 + União de Leiria defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

União de Leiria scores more
70%
level
21%
Alcains scores more
9%

União de Leiria at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: União de Leiria vs Alcains

União de Leiria beat Alcains 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in Leiria.