Alcains 1–4 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Alcains

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

União de Leiria

1/6/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 4Estádio Trigueiros do Aragão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Alcains17%

×Draw26%

União de Leiria58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcainsExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.54

Alcains

0.69

União de Leiria

1.54

União de Leiria creates 123% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

2.00

1.09

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Alcains

0.82

União de Leiria

2.00

allows per match

Alcains

1.09

União de Leiria

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcains+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcains ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alcains or draw

42%

Alcains or União de Leiria

74%

Draw or União de Leiria

83%

Winning margin

Alcains wins by 2+

5%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Alcains 1+ goals

50%

Alcains 2+ goals

15%

Alcains 3+ goals

3%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

79%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

45%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Alcains (draw refunded)

22%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcains at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcains attack 0.82 + União de Leiria defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.69

União de Leiria attack 2.00 + Alcains defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alcains scores more

17%

level

26%

União de Leiria scores more

58%

União de Leiria at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff