União Carmolandense 1–1 Penedense: Result & Stats

União Carmolandense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Penedense

Gabriel Vinicius 68'

Thiaguinho 90'

4/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Carmolandense56%

×Draw29%

Penedense14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União CarmolandenseExpected goals in this matchPenedense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.50

União Carmolandense

1.29

Penedense

0.50

União Carmolandense creates 158% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.29

0.71

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

União Carmolandense

1.29

Penedense

0.29

allows per match

União Carmolandense

0.71

Penedense

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Carmolandense+0.00on par

Penedense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Carmolandense ↓

Penedense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

União Carmolandense or draw

86%

União Carmolandense or Penedense

71%

Draw or Penedense

44%

Winning margin

União Carmolandense wins by 2+

27%

Penedense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

União Carmolandense 1+ goals

72%

União Carmolandense 2+ goals

37%

União Carmolandense 3+ goals

14%

Penedense 1+ goals

39%

Penedense 2+ goals

9%

Penedense 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)

80%

Penedense (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Carmolandense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Penedense away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Carmolandense attack 1.29 + Penedense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Penedense attack 0.29 + União Carmolandense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

União Carmolandense scores more

56%

level

29%

Penedense scores more

14%

União Carmolandense at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

Gabriel Vinicius

90'

Thiaguinho

União

Penedense

⚽

Manager: Barbosa

União Carmolandense substitutes

AlberioneAfonsoWandersonAssuérioThalysonVictorRochaGeyksonMineiroBrasileiroBarrosElias

Manager: Jaelson Marcelino

Penedense substitutes

NiltonHugoTanakaNaldoBidelDuduCarlosGlaubersonKauan