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Penedense vs União Carmolandense — Serie D 2025

Penedense
Penedense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
União Carmolandense
União Carmolandense
Romario Valenca 45' (pen)
Gustavo Gomes 64'
7/20/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Alfredo Leahy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Penedense36%
×Draw32%
União Carmolandense32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Penedense
1.00
União Carmolandense
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Penedense
0.43
União Carmolandense
0.71

allows per match

Penedense
1.14
União Carmolandense
1.57

finishing

Penedense+0.00on par
União Carmolandense+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Penedense ↓

União Carmolandense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Penedense or draw
68%
Penedense or União Carmolandense
68%
Draw or União Carmolandense
64%

Winning margin

Penedense wins by 2+
14%
União Carmolandense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Penedense 1+ goals
63%
Penedense 2+ goals
26%
Penedense 3+ goals
8%
União Carmolandense 1+ goals
60%
União Carmolandense 2+ goals
23%
União Carmolandense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Penedense (draw refunded)
53%
União Carmolandense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Penedense at home — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

União Carmolandense away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Penedense attack 0.43 + União Carmolandense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.00

União Carmolandense attack 0.71 + Penedense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Penedense scores more
36%
level
32%
União Carmolandense scores more
32%

Penedense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Penedense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Romario ValencaPenalty
64'
Gustavo Gomes
Penedense
União
Jaelson Marcelino
Manager: Jaelson Marcelino
Barbosa
Manager: Barbosa

Match Recap: Penedense vs União Carmolandense

Penedense and União Carmolandense drew 1-1 in Serie D on July 20, 2025.

Goals: Romario Valenca (45' pen), Gustavo Gomes (64').

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo Leahy in Penedo.