União Carmolandense 3–0 Barcelona BA

União Carmolandense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Barcelona BA

Ian 60'

J. Brasileiro 33' (pen)

Gabriel Vinicius 19'

Tiba 16'

W. Simoes Viana 28'

5/10/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

União Carmolandense66%

×Draw23%

Barcelona BA11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

União CarmolandenseExpected goals in this matchBarcelona BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.50

União Carmolandense

1.65

Barcelona BA

0.50

União Carmolandense creates 230% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.29

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

União Carmolandense

1.29

Barcelona BA

0.29

allows per match

União Carmolandense

0.71

Barcelona BA

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

União Carmolandense+0.00on par

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

União Carmolandense ↓

Barcelona BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

União Carmolandense or draw

89%

União Carmolandense or Barcelona BA

77%

Draw or Barcelona BA

34%

Winning margin

União Carmolandense wins by 2+

37%

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

União Carmolandense 1+ goals

81%

União Carmolandense 2+ goals

49%

União Carmolandense 3+ goals

23%

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

39%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

9%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)

86%

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

União Carmolandense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

União Carmolandense attack 1.29 + Barcelona BA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Barcelona BA attack 0.29 + União Carmolandense defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

União Carmolandense scores more

66%

level

23%

Barcelona BA scores more

11%

União Carmolandense at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "União Carmolandense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Tiba

19'

Gabriel Vinicius

28'

W. Simoes Viana

33'

J. BrasileiroPenalty

60'

Ian

60'

Ian

União

Barcelona

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Barbosa

União Carmolandense substitutes

PedrãoWandersonEliasMoraisAfonsoVictorRochaPauloHenriqueThalysonAlberioneAnanás

Manager: Carlos Rabello

Barcelona BA substitutes

NadsonRenanDandanFormigaRangelClebsonDikGianDeusPeresAntônio

Match Recap: União Carmolandense vs Barcelona BA

União Carmolandense beat Barcelona BA 3-0 in Serie D on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Tiba (16'), Gabriel Vinicius (19'), W. Simoes Viana (28'), J. Brasileiro (33' pen), Ian (60').

The match was played at Estádio Leôncio de Souza Miranda in Araguaína, Tocantins.

União Carmolandense vs Barcelona BA — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: União Carmolandense vs Barcelona BA