Barcelona BA 4–1 União Carmolandense

Barcelona BA

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

União Carmolandense

Juninho Carpina 90' (pen)

Alex Sandre 75'

Diki 63'

Gianlucas 51'

Tiba 84'

7/6/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Barcelona BA49%

×Draw29%

União Carmolandense23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BAExpected goals in this matchUnião Carmolandense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.78

Barcelona BA

1.29

União Carmolandense

0.78

Barcelona BA creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Barcelona BA

1.00

União Carmolandense

0.71

allows per match

Barcelona BA

0.86

União Carmolandense

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

União Carmolandense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

União Carmolandense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw

77%

Barcelona BA or União Carmolandense

71%

Draw or União Carmolandense

51%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

23%

União Carmolandense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

37%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

14%

União Carmolandense 1+ goals

54%

União Carmolandense 2+ goals

18%

União Carmolandense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

68%

União Carmolandense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

União Carmolandense away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 1.00 + União Carmolandense defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

União Carmolandense attack 0.71 + Barcelona BA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barcelona BA scores more

49%

level

29%

União Carmolandense scores more

23%

Barcelona BA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Gianlucas

63'

Diki

75'

Alex Sandre

84'

Tiba

90'

Juninho CarpinaPenalty

Barcelona

União

Manager: Carlos Rabello

Manager: Barbosa