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Unia Turza Śląska vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska37%
×Draw25%
Pawłowice Śląskie39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Turza Śląska
1.44
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.09
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.76
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw
61%
Unia Turza Śląska or Pawłowice Śląskie
75%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
63%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
17%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
76%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
42%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
18%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
77%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
43%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
49%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more
37%
level
25%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
39%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Unia Turza Śląska 1–2 Pawłowice Śląskie

Pawłowice Śląskie beat Unia Turza Śląska 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska in Turza Śląska.