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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Unia Turza Śląska — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
1 – 1
Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie50%
×Draw22%
Unia Turza Śląska28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.94
Unia Turza Śląska
1.42

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Unia Turza Śląska
1.21

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Unia Turza Śląska
2.03

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Unia Turza Śląska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
72%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Unia Turza Śląska
78%
Draw or Unia Turza Śląska
50%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
28%
Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
86%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
58%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
30%
Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
76%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
41%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
64%
Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Unia Turza Śląska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.21 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
50%
level
22%
Unia Turza Śląska scores more
28%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 1–1 Unia Turza Śląska

Pawłowice Śląskie and Unia Turza Śląska drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.