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Unia Turza Śląska vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
FT
2 – 2
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
8/3/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska39%
×Draw25%
Odra Bytom Odrzański36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Turza Śląska
1.47
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.09
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.76
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw
64%
Unia Turza Śląska or Odra Bytom Odrzański
75%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
61%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
19%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
77%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
43%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
18%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
75%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
41%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
52%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more
39%
level
25%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
36%

Unia Turza Śląska at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unia Turza Śląska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Unia Turza Śląska 2–2 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Unia Turza Śląska and Odra Bytom Odrzański drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska in Turza Śląska.