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Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Unia Turza Śląska — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
11/23/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański46%
×Draw24%
Unia Turza Śląska31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.69
Unia Turza Śląska
1.34

Odra Bytom Odrzański creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.35
Unia Turza Śląska
1.21

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.47
Unia Turza Śląska
2.03

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par
Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Unia Turza Śląska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw
69%
Odra Bytom Odrzański or Unia Turza Śląska
76%
Draw or Unia Turza Śląska
54%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
24%
Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
82%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
50%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
24%
Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
74%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
39%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
60%
Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Unia Turza Śląska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.21 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
46%
level
24%
Unia Turza Śląska scores more
31%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Bytom Odrzański 3–0 Unia Turza Śląska

Odra Bytom Odrzański beat Unia Turza Śląska 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim in Bytom Odrzański.