Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Turza Śląska vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Unknown 84' (pen), 77'
O. Lazar 37'
J. Zalucki 30'
J. Kaczmarek 21'
3/3/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska36%
×Draw24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Turza Śląska
1.47
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.09
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.76
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw
60%
Unia Turza Śląska or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
76%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
64%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
17%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
77%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
43%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
18%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
79%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
46%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
47%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more
36%
level
24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
40%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
J. Kaczmarek
30'
J. Zalucki
37'
O. Lazar
77'
84'
Penalty
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Turza Śląska vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Unia Turza Śląska 3-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Kaczmarek (21'), J. Zalucki (30'), O. Lazar (37'), ? (77', 84' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.