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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Unia Turza Śląska — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
N. Wroblewski 55'
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry48%
×Draw23%
Unia Turza Śląska29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.76
Unia Turza Śląska
1.33

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Unia Turza Śląska
1.21

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Unia Turza Śląska
2.03

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Unia Turza Śląska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
71%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Unia Turza Śląska
77%
Draw or Unia Turza Śląska
52%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
26%
Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
83%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
52%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
26%
Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
74%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
38%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
62%
Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Unia Turza Śląska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.21 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
48%
level
23%
Unia Turza Śląska scores more
29%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
N. Wroblewski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Unia Turza Śląska

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Unia Turza Śląska 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 12, 2023.

Goals: N. Wroblewski (55').

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.