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Unia Turza Śląska vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
6/7/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Turza Śląska32%
×Draw23%
Górnik Zabrze II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Turza Śląska
1.42
Górnik Zabrze II
1.73

Górnik Zabrze II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.09
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Unia Turza Śląska
1.76
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Turza Śląska ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Unia Turza Śląska or draw
55%
Unia Turza Śląska or Górnik Zabrze II
77%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
68%

Winning margin

Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
14%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
76%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
41%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
82%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
52%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
41%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Turza Śląska at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.76 · 34 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.09 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unia Turza Śląska scores more
32%
level
23%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
45%

Górnik Zabrze II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Turza Śląska vs Górnik Zabrze II

Górnik Zabrze II beat Unia Turza Śląska 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion LKS Unia Turza Śląska in Turza Śląska.