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Górnik Zabrze II vs Unia Turza Śląska — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unia Turza Śląska
Unia Turza Śląska
11/27/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II53%
×Draw22%
Unia Turza Śląska25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.91
Unia Turza Śląska
1.23

Górnik Zabrze II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Unia Turza Śląska
1.21

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Unia Turza Śląska
2.03

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Unia Turza Śląska+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Unia Turza Śląska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
75%
Górnik Zabrze II or Unia Turza Śląska
78%
Draw or Unia Turza Śląska
47%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
30%
Unia Turza Śląska wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
85%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
57%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
30%
Unia Turza Śląska 1+ goals
71%
Unia Turza Śląska 2+ goals
35%
Unia Turza Śląska 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
68%
Unia Turza Śląska (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Unia Turza Śląska away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Unia Turza Śląska defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.91

Unia Turza Śląska attack 1.21 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
53%
level
22%
Unia Turza Śląska scores more
25%

Górnik Zabrze II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze II vs Unia Turza Śląska

Górnik Zabrze II beat Unia Turza Śląska 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.