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Unia Tarnow vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
4/23/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unia Tarnow40%
×Draw23%
Sokół Sieniawa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.69
Sokół Sieniawa
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 71 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
63%
Unia Tarnow or Sokół Sieniawa
77%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
60%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
21%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
82%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
50%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
24%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
80%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
47%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
52%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
40%
level
23%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
37%

Unia Tarnow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unia Tarnow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Tarnow vs Sokół Sieniawa

Unia Tarnow and Sokół Sieniawa drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.