Sokół Sieniawa 3–0 Unia Tarnow: Result & Stats

Sokół Sieniawa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Unia Tarnow

3/5/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa49%

×Draw22%

Unia Tarnow29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół SieniawaExpected goals in this matchUnia Tarnow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.40

Sokół Sieniawa

1.89

Unia Tarnow

1.40

Sokół Sieniawa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 68 away

1.46

creates per match

1.16

1.63

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.46

Unia Tarnow

1.16

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.63

Unia Tarnow

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Unia Tarnow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw

71%

Sokół Sieniawa or Unia Tarnow

78%

Draw or Unia Tarnow

51%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+

27%

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals

85%

Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals

56%

Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals

29%

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

75%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

41%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)

63%

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more

49%

level

22%

Unia Tarnow scores more

29%

Sokół Sieniawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff