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Unia Tarnow vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
2 – 3
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unia Tarnow33%
×Draw24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.44
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.67

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 16% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 104 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
57%
Unia Tarnow or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
76%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
67%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
15%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
76%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
42%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
18%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
81%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
50%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
44%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
33%
level
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
43%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Unia Tarnow 2–3 Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Unia Tarnow 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.