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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Unia Tarnow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
3 – 1
Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
8/25/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska55%
×Draw22%
Unia Tarnow23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
2.02
Unia Tarnow
1.23

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 64% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Unia Tarnow
1.16

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Unia Tarnow
2.31

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Unia Tarnow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
77%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Unia Tarnow
78%
Draw or Unia Tarnow
45%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
33%
Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
87%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
60%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
33%
Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
71%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
35%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
71%
Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.02

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
55%
level
22%
Unia Tarnow scores more
23%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3–1 Unia Tarnow

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Unia Tarnow 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Biała Podlaska.