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Unia Tarnow vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
8/12/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unia Tarnow29%
×Draw23%
Chełmianka Chełm48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.36
Chełmianka Chełm
1.83

Chełmianka Chełm creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 104 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
52%
Unia Tarnow or Chełmianka Chełm
77%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
71%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
12%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
74%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
39%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
16%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
84%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
54%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
37%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
29%
level
23%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
48%

Chełmianka Chełm at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Tarnow vs Chełmianka Chełm

Unia Tarnow beat Chełmianka Chełm 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.