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Chełmianka Chełm vs Unia Tarnow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
11/2/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm57%
×Draw21%
Unia Tarnow21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chełmianka Chełm
2.04
Unia Tarnow
1.17

Chełmianka Chełm creates 74% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.77
Unia Tarnow
1.16

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm
1.18
Unia Tarnow
2.31

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par
Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Unia Tarnow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw
79%
Chełmianka Chełm or Unia Tarnow
79%
Draw or Unia Tarnow
43%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
34%
Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
87%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
60%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
33%
Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
69%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
33%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
73%
Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more
57%
level
21%
Unia Tarnow scores more
21%

Chełmianka Chełm at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chełmianka Chełm vs Unia Tarnow

Chełmianka Chełm beat Unia Tarnow 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Chełm.