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Unia Tarnow vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Unia Tarnow24%
×Draw22%
Avia Świdnik54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.22
Avia Świdnik
1.92

Avia Świdnik creates 57% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 104 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
46%
Unia Tarnow or Avia Świdnik
78%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
76%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
10%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
70%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
34%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
12%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
85%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
57%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
31%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
24%
level
22%
Avia Świdnik scores more
54%

Avia Świdnik at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Tarnow vs Avia Świdnik

Avia Świdnik beat Unia Tarnow 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.