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Avia Świdnik vs Unia Tarnow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
8/17/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Avia Świdnik64%
×Draw19%
Unia Tarnow17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
2.28
Unia Tarnow
1.07

Avia Świdnik creates 113% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
Unia Tarnow
1.16

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
Unia Tarnow
2.31

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Unia Tarnow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
83%
Avia Świdnik or Unia Tarnow
81%
Draw or Unia Tarnow
36%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
41%
Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
90%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
66%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
39%
Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
66%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
29%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
79%
Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.28

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
64%
level
19%
Unia Tarnow scores more
17%

Avia Świdnik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avia Świdnik vs Unia Tarnow

Avia Świdnik beat Unia Tarnow 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.