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Unia Tarnow vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Łagów
Łagów
3/26/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unia Tarnow27%
×Draw24%
Łagów48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Tarnow
1.17
Łagów
1.65

Łagów creates 41% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Unia Tarnow
1.31
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Unia Tarnow
1.94
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Tarnow ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Unia Tarnow or draw
52%
Unia Tarnow or Łagów
76%
Draw or Łagów
73%

Winning margin

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
11%
Łagów wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
69%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
33%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
11%
Łagów 1+ goals
81%
Łagów 2+ goals
49%
Łagów 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
36%
Łagów (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Tarnow at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.94 · 67 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Tarnow attack 1.31 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Łagów attack 1.36 + Unia Tarnow defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unia Tarnow scores more
27%
level
24%
Łagów scores more
48%

Łagów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Unia Tarnow 0–0 Łagów

Unia Tarnow and Łagów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tarnów.