Łagów 0–0 Unia Tarnow: Result & Stats

Łagów

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unia Tarnow

11/6/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów56%

×Draw21%

Unia Tarnow23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁagówExpected goals in this matchUnia Tarnow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.22

Łagów

2.04

Unia Tarnow

1.22

Łagów creates 67% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

1.78

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Łagów

1.78

Unia Tarnow

1.16

allows per match

Łagów

1.28

Unia Tarnow

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Unia Tarnow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Łagów or draw

77%

Łagów or Unia Tarnow

79%

Draw or Unia Tarnow

44%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+

33%

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals

87%

Łagów 2+ goals

60%

Łagów 3+ goals

33%

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

70%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

34%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)

71%

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Łagów scores more

56%

level

21%

Unia Tarnow scores more

23%

Łagów at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff