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Unia Swarzędz vs Stolem Gniewino — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Stolem Gniewino
Stolem Gniewino
5/6/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unia Swarzędz55%
×Draw24%
Stolem Gniewino21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.72
Stolem Gniewino
0.98

Unia Swarzędz creates 76% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Stolem Gniewino
0.88

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Stolem Gniewino
1.92

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Stolem Gniewino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
79%
Unia Swarzędz or Stolem Gniewino
76%
Draw or Stolem Gniewino
45%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
30%
Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
82%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
51%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
25%
Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals
62%
Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals
26%
Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
72%
Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Stolem Gniewino away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.72

Stolem Gniewino attack 0.88 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
55%
level
24%
Stolem Gniewino scores more
21%

Unia Swarzędz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Swarzędz 2–1 Stolem Gniewino

Unia Swarzędz beat Stolem Gniewino 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.