Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stolem Gniewino vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Stolem Gniewino
Stolem Gniewino
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion GOTiS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Stolem Gniewino33%
×Draw25%
Unia Swarzędz42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stolem Gniewino
1.36
Unia Swarzędz
1.55

Unia Swarzędz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 84 away

creates per match

Stolem Gniewino
1.20
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Stolem Gniewino
1.59
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Stolem Gniewino+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stolem Gniewino ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stolem Gniewino or draw
58%
Stolem Gniewino or Unia Swarzędz
75%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
67%

Winning margin

Stolem Gniewino wins by 2+
15%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stolem Gniewino 1+ goals
74%
Stolem Gniewino 2+ goals
39%
Stolem Gniewino 3+ goals
16%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
79%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
46%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stolem Gniewino (draw refunded)
44%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stolem Gniewino at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stolem Gniewino attack 1.20 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Stolem Gniewino defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stolem Gniewino scores more
33%
level
25%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
42%

Unia Swarzędz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Stolem Gniewino 1–1 Unia Swarzędz

Stolem Gniewino and Unia Swarzędz drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion GOTiS in Gniewino.