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Unia Swarzędz vs Starogard Gdański — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
8/4/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Unia Swarzędz45%
×Draw26%
Starogard Gdański29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.50
Starogard Gdański
1.16

Unia Swarzędz creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Starogard Gdański
1.24

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Starogard Gdański
1.47

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Starogard Gdański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
71%
Unia Swarzędz or Starogard Gdański
74%
Draw or Starogard Gdański
55%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
22%
Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
78%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
44%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
19%
Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
69%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
32%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
61%
Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
45%
level
26%
Starogard Gdański scores more
29%

Unia Swarzędz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Swarzędz vs Starogard Gdański

Unia Swarzędz and Starogard Gdański drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.