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Starogard Gdański vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
11/25/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Starogard Gdański31%
×Draw24%
Unia Swarzędz45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.39
Unia Swarzędz
1.71

Unia Swarzędz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
55%
Starogard Gdański or Unia Swarzędz
76%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
69%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
14%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
75%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
40%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
16%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
82%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
51%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
41%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
31%
level
24%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
45%

Unia Swarzędz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Starogard Gdański 3–4 Unia Swarzędz

Unia Swarzędz beat Starogard Gdański 4-3 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.