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Unia Swarzędz vs Stargard Szczeciński — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
3 – 0
Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Unia Swarzędz40%
×Draw24%
Stargard Szczeciński35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.56
Stargard Szczeciński
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Stargard Szczeciński
1.80

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Stargard Szczeciński
1.60

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
65%
Unia Swarzędz or Stargard Szczeciński
76%
Draw or Stargard Szczeciński
60%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
20%
Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
79%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
46%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
21%
Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
76%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
42%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
53%
Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
40%
level
24%
Stargard Szczeciński scores more
35%

Unia Swarzędz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Swarzędz 3–0 Stargard Szczeciński

Unia Swarzędz beat Stargard Szczeciński 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.