Stargard Szczeciński 1–1 Unia Swarzędz

Stargard Szczeciński

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Unia Swarzędz

10/11/2025

III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Stargard Szczeciński42%

×Draw24%

Unia Swarzędz34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stargard SzczecińskiExpected goals in this matchUnia Swarzędz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.48

Stargard Szczeciński

1.66

Unia Swarzędz

1.48

Stargard Szczeciński creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

1.80

creates per match

1.51

1.46

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.80

Unia Swarzędz

1.51

allows per match

Stargard Szczeciński

1.46

Unia Swarzędz

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stargard Szczeciński ↓

Unia Swarzędz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stargard Szczeciński or draw

66%

Stargard Szczeciński or Unia Swarzędz

76%

Draw or Unia Swarzędz

58%

Winning margin

Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+

22%

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals

81%

Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals

49%

Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals

23%

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals

77%

Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals

43%

Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)

55%

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stargard Szczeciński at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 85 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.80 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.66

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stargard Szczeciński scores more

42%

level

24%

Unia Swarzędz scores more

34%

Stargard Szczeciński at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stargard Szczeciński will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff