Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Unia Swarzędz vs Solec K. — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Solec K.
Solec K.
10/21/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unia Swarzędz53%
×Draw23%
Solec K.24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.82
Solec K.
1.13

Unia Swarzędz creates 61% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Solec K.
1.18

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Solec K.
2.12

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Solec K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
76%
Unia Swarzędz or Solec K.
77%
Draw or Solec K.
47%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
30%
Solec K. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
84%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
54%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
27%
Solec K. 1+ goals
68%
Solec K. 2+ goals
31%
Solec K. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
69%
Solec K. (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.82

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
53%
level
23%
Solec K. scores more
24%

Unia Swarzędz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Swarzędz 1–0 Solec K.

Unia Swarzędz beat Solec K. 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.