Solec K. 0–1 Unia Swarzędz: Result & Stats

Solec K.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unia Swarzędz

5/15/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.27%

×Draw23%

Unia Swarzędz50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Solec K.Expected goals in this matchUnia Swarzędz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.80

Solec K.

1.27

Unia Swarzędz

1.80

Unia Swarzędz creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

1.03

creates per match

1.51

2.09

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Solec K.

1.03

Unia Swarzędz

1.51

allows per match

Solec K.

2.09

Unia Swarzędz

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Unia Swarzędz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw

50%

Solec K. or Unia Swarzędz

77%

Draw or Unia Swarzędz

73%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+

11%

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals

72%

Solec K. 2+ goals

36%

Solec K. 3+ goals

14%

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals

83%

Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals

54%

Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)

35%

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Solec K. scores more

27%

level

23%

Unia Swarzędz scores more

50%

Unia Swarzędz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Unia Swarzędz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff