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Unia Swarzędz vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
FT
2 – 3
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
6/26/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Swarzędz38%
×Draw23%
Nielba Wągrowiec39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Swarzędz
1.64
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.52
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Unia Swarzędz
1.08
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Swarzędz ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Unia Swarzędz or draw
61%
Unia Swarzędz or Nielba Wągrowiec
77%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
62%

Winning margin

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
19%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
81%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
49%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
23%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
81%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
49%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
49%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Swarzędz at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.52 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unia Swarzędz scores more
38%
level
23%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
39%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Swarzędz vs Nielba Wągrowiec

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Unia Swarzędz 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Swarzędz.