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Nielba Wągrowiec vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
FT
4 – 3
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nielba Wągrowiec43%
×Draw23%
Unia Swarzędz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.82
Unia Swarzędz
1.61

Nielba Wągrowiec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
2.12
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Nielba Wągrowiec
1.71
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nielba Wągrowiec ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nielba Wągrowiec or draw
66%
Nielba Wągrowiec or Unia Swarzędz
77%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
57%

Winning margin

Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
23%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
84%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
54%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
27%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
80%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
48%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
56%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nielba Wągrowiec at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.12 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
43%
level
23%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
34%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nielba Wągrowiec vs Unia Swarzędz

Nielba Wągrowiec beat Unia Swarzędz 4-3 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR im. Stanisława Bąka in Wągrowiec.