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Unia Skierniewice vs Stomil Olsztyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
11/22/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Skierniewice47%
×Draw24%
Stomil Olsztyn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Skierniewice
1.65
Stomil Olsztyn
1.23

Unia Skierniewice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.89
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice
1.28
Stomil Olsztyn
1.41

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw
71%
Unia Skierniewice or Stomil Olsztyn
76%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
53%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
25%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
81%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
49%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
23%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
71%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
35%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
62%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more
47%
level
24%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
29%

Unia Skierniewice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Skierniewice vs Stomil Olsztyn

Unia Skierniewice beat Stomil Olsztyn 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Skierniewicach in Skierniewice.