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Stomil Olsztyn vs Unia Skierniewice — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Unia Skierniewice
Unia Skierniewice
8/2/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn28%
×Draw23%
Unia Skierniewice49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomil Olsztyn
1.35
Unia Skierniewice
1.84

Unia Skierniewice creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.41
Unia Skierniewice
1.81

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn
1.88
Unia Skierniewice
1.29

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par
Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Unia Skierniewice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw
51%
Stomil Olsztyn or Unia Skierniewice
77%
Draw or Unia Skierniewice
72%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
12%
Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
74%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
39%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
15%
Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals
84%
Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals
55%
Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
37%
Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Unia Skierniewice away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.41 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.81 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more
28%
level
23%
Unia Skierniewice scores more
49%

Unia Skierniewice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomil Olsztyn vs Unia Skierniewice

Stomil Olsztyn beat Unia Skierniewice 4-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.