Unia Skierniewice 2–0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Unia Skierniewice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Unia Skierniewice64%

×Draw19%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia SkierniewiceExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

1.22

Unia Skierniewice

2.43

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.22

Unia Skierniewice creates 99% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.50

creates per match

1.55

0.88

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice

2.50

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.55

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice

0.88

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw

82%

Unia Skierniewice or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

81%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

36%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

42%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

91%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

69%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

43%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

70%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

34%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

78%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 2.50 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.43

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.55 + Unia Skierniewice defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more

64%

level

19%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

18%

Unia Skierniewice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Unia Skierniewice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff