Unia Skierniewice 2–7 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Unia Skierniewice

FT

2 – 7

HT: 1 – 4

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

N. Vasin 68'

A. Dudzinski 42'

K. Odolak 90', 77' (pen)

D. Gedek 66', 35'

A. Gajgier 22'

N. Niski 16'

O. Zinkewycz 8'

11/18/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Boisko Nieborów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Unia Skierniewice36%

×Draw23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unia SkierniewiceExpected goals in this matchPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.71

Unia Skierniewice

1.59

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

1.89

creates per match

2.14

1.28

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Unia Skierniewice

1.89

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

2.14

allows per match

Unia Skierniewice

1.28

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unia Skierniewice+0.00on par

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Skierniewice ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Unia Skierniewice or draw

59%

Unia Skierniewice or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

77%

Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

64%

Winning margin

Unia Skierniewice wins by 2+

18%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Unia Skierniewice 1+ goals

80%

Unia Skierniewice 2+ goals

47%

Unia Skierniewice 3+ goals

21%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

82%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

51%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Unia Skierniewice (draw refunded)

47%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Skierniewice at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Skierniewice attack 1.89 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.59

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Unia Skierniewice defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unia Skierniewice scores more

36%

level

23%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

41%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

O. Zinkewycz

16'

N. Niski

22'

A. Gajgier

35'

D. Gedek

42'

A. Dudzinski

66'

D. Gedek

68'

N. Vasin

77'

K. OdolakPenalty

90'

K. Odolak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff