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Unia Janikowo vs Pomorzanin Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Janikowo
Unia Janikowo
FT
2 – 1
Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
6/6/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Janikowo47%
×Draw25%
Pomorzanin Toruń28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Janikowo
1.57
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.15

Unia Janikowo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Janikowo
1.67
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.18

allows per match

Unia Janikowo
1.12
Pomorzanin Toruń
1.47

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par
Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Pomorzanin Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw
72%
Unia Janikowo or Pomorzanin Toruń
75%
Draw or Pomorzanin Toruń
53%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+
24%
Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals
79%
Unia Janikowo 2+ goals
46%
Unia Janikowo 3+ goals
21%
Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
68%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
32%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)
63%
Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Pomorzanin Toruń away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.18 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more
47%
level
25%
Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
28%

Unia Janikowo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Unia Janikowo 2–1 Pomorzanin Toruń

Unia Janikowo beat Pomorzanin Toruń 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Janikowo.