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Pomorzanin Toruń vs Unia Janikowo — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
FT
1 – 1
Unia Janikowo
Unia Janikowo
9/16/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń47%
×Draw25%
Unia Janikowo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.59
Unia Janikowo
1.16

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.12
Unia Janikowo
1.43

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.88
Unia Janikowo
2.07

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par
Unia Janikowo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Unia Janikowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw
72%
Pomorzanin Toruń or Unia Janikowo
75%
Draw or Unia Janikowo
53%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
24%
Unia Janikowo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
80%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
47%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
21%
Unia Janikowo 1+ goals
69%
Unia Janikowo 2+ goals
32%
Unia Janikowo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
63%
Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Unia Janikowo away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Unia Janikowo defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Unia Janikowo attack 1.43 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
47%
level
25%
Unia Janikowo scores more
28%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pomorzanin Toruń vs Unia Janikowo

Pomorzanin Toruń and Unia Janikowo drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.