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Unia Janikowo vs Górnik Konin — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Unia Janikowo
Unia Janikowo
FT
2 – 1
Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Unia Janikowo56%
×Draw24%
Górnik Konin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unia Janikowo
1.75
Górnik Konin
0.97

Unia Janikowo creates 80% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 17 away

creates per match

Unia Janikowo
1.67
Górnik Konin
0.82

allows per match

Unia Janikowo
1.12
Górnik Konin
1.82

finishing

Unia Janikowo+0.00on par
Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unia Janikowo ↓

Górnik Konin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Unia Janikowo or draw
79%
Unia Janikowo or Górnik Konin
76%
Draw or Górnik Konin
44%

Winning margin

Unia Janikowo wins by 2+
31%
Górnik Konin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Unia Janikowo 1+ goals
83%
Unia Janikowo 2+ goals
52%
Unia Janikowo 3+ goals
25%
Górnik Konin 1+ goals
62%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
25%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)
73%
Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unia Janikowo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unia Janikowo attack 1.67 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Unia Janikowo defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unia Janikowo scores more
56%
level
24%
Górnik Konin scores more
21%

Unia Janikowo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unia Janikowo vs Górnik Konin

Unia Janikowo beat Górnik Konin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Janikowo.