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Górnik Konin vs Unia Janikowo — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Górnik Konin
Górnik Konin
FT
0 – 1
Unia Janikowo
Unia Janikowo
D. Radomski 56' (pen)
4/24/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Konin30%
×Draw21%
Unia Janikowo49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Konin
1.56
Unia Janikowo
2.04

Unia Janikowo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

Górnik Konin
1.06
Unia Janikowo
1.43

allows per match

Górnik Konin
2.65
Unia Janikowo
2.07

finishing

Górnik Konin+0.00on par
Unia Janikowo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Konin ↓

Unia Janikowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Górnik Konin or draw
51%
Górnik Konin or Unia Janikowo
79%
Draw or Unia Janikowo
70%

Winning margin

Górnik Konin wins by 2+
14%
Unia Janikowo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Górnik Konin 1+ goals
79%
Górnik Konin 2+ goals
46%
Górnik Konin 3+ goals
21%
Unia Janikowo 1+ goals
87%
Unia Janikowo 2+ goals
60%
Unia Janikowo 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)
38%
Unia Janikowo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Konin at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Unia Janikowo away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Konin attack 1.06 + Unia Janikowo defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

Unia Janikowo attack 1.43 + Górnik Konin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Górnik Konin scores more
30%
level
21%
Unia Janikowo scores more
49%

Unia Janikowo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Unia Janikowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
D. RadomskiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Górnik Konin 0 – 1 Unia Janikowo

Unia Janikowo beat Górnik Konin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on April 24, 2021.

Goals: D. Radomski (56' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego in Konin.