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Undrid vs NSÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

Undrid
Undrid
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
NSÍ II
NSÍ II
5/14/20221. Deild1. Deild · Round 9Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Undrid50%
×Draw21%
NSÍ II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Undrid
2.06
NSÍ II
1.50

Undrid creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 89 away

creates per match

Undrid
1.93
NSÍ II
1.94

allows per match

Undrid
1.07
NSÍ II
2.18

finishing

Undrid+0.00on par
NSÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Undrid ↓

NSÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Undrid or draw
72%
Undrid or NSÍ II
79%
Draw or NSÍ II
50%

Winning margin

Undrid wins by 2+
29%
NSÍ II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Undrid 1+ goals
87%
Undrid 2+ goals
61%
Undrid 3+ goals
34%
NSÍ II 1+ goals
78%
NSÍ II 2+ goals
44%
NSÍ II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Undrid (draw refunded)
64%
NSÍ II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Undrid at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

NSÍ II away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Undrid attack 1.93 + NSÍ II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.06

NSÍ II attack 1.94 + Undrid defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Undrid scores more
50%
level
21%
NSÍ II scores more
28%

Undrid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Undrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Undrid 3–1 NSÍ II

Undrid beat NSÍ II 3-1 in 1. Deild on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.